In October, the focus was on identifying entry points into the market. November was all about capturing those opportunities.
Throughout the month, we observed notable shifts driven by macro events, particularly the evolving political landscape in the United States.
Shift During the U.S. Election Period
As the likelihood of a Trump victory increased, market dynamics evolved rapidly. Bitcoin led the charge, followed by a rally in altcoins, especially in sectors previously pressured by regulatory uncertainty like DeFi and Real World Assets (RWAs).
Bitcoin’s price surged from $70,000 to over $90,000 within two weeks, confirming the expected trend.
Profits realized from Bitcoin were tactically rotated into altcoin projects expected to benefit most from the pro-crypto sentiment.
Tactical Adjustments Post-Bitcoin Rally
In the second half of November, as Bitcoin’s momentum began to stabilize, attention shifted increasingly toward altcoins.
Selective allocations into promising altcoins paid off, with notable performances such as Ripple (XRP) posting gains of over 400%, driven by easing regulatory concerns.
As altcoins rallied, profits were carefully taken and reallocated into more stable assets, maintaining core positions in high-conviction investments like Solana, while continuing to prioritize long-term growth opportunities.
Understanding Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle
Bitcoin’s price history shows a clear 4-year cycle pattern, primarily driven by the halving events where Bitcoin’s issuance rate is reduced by half.
Key Observations:
This cyclicality offers a useful framework for understanding broader market movements and adjusting strategies over time.
Current Phase:
We are now transitioning from the halving event toward the next cycle top — historically a phase where altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin as risk appetite increases.
On-Chain Insights: MVRV Metric
On-chain data shows that during each Bitcoin bull cycle, the MVRV ratio — the ratio between Bitcoin’s market value and its realized value — peaks around 4.0.
Using this as a guide, a potential long-term target for Bitcoin could be projected at around $250,000, supported by several catalysts:
Withdrawal of SEC lawsuits against crypto firms
While projections should be taken cautiously, these factors present an exciting long-term outlook for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Surge:
Bitcoin reached new highs, peaking at $99,860 on November 22, marking a 37% increase for the month.
This rally was driven by strong inflows into spot ETFs, exceeding $6.2 billion, highlighting Bitcoin’s growing role as an institutional reserve asset.
Ethereum and Altcoin Momentum:
The ETH/BTC pair — often seen as a leading indicator for altcoin performance — began recovering later in November.
Ethereum’s strength supported a broader altcoin rally, with projects like Chainlink and Ripple benefiting from renewed capital flows into the sector.
Institutional Adoption Milestones:
Nasdaq listed options for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, with strong early volume.
Corporate adoption continued to rise, with notable institutional investors increasing their exposure to Bitcoin-related assets.
Election Influence on Crypto:
Market optimism was fueled by the prospect of crypto-friendly policies associated with a Trump victory.
Proposals such as establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve and appointing crypto-supportive officials bolstered sentiment.
While it’s unlikely the U.S. will directly purchase Bitcoin on the open market, it already holds significant reserves through forfeiture and seizure.
Bitcoin as a Macro Asset:
Bitcoin’s market cap has surpassed that of silver, reinforcing its status as a mainstream macro asset.
In contrast, gold declined by 5% over the same period, indicating a structural capital shift toward digital stores of value.
Shifts in Market Dominance:
Bitcoin’s dominance fell from 62% to 59% as capital rotated into Ethereum, Solana, and other major altcoins, signaling the early phases of a broader altcoin market expansion.
Key Takeaways for November
Final Note
November was a transformative month across the digital asset landscape.
We look forward to monitoring these developments closely and adjusting strategies to capture opportunities as they arise.
Stay tuned for our next update as we move further into this exciting market cycle.
